FMCG Barometer

Executive introduction - Q1 Barometer release

Executive introduction - Q1 Barometer release

This Q1 release marks an important step forward for the Barometer. The report has been significantly expanded, moving from the previous core set of 13 markets to a much broader global footprint of 41 countries. At the same time, the regional structure has been updated from three broad regions to seven more detailed regional views, allowing users to better compare market dynamics across North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North and West Asia, South-East Asia and the Middle East.

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Previous Releases

FMCG Barometer Executive Summary Q4 2025

FMCG Barometer Executive Summary Q4 2025

Global FMCG growth moderated throughout 2025. Value expansion gradually softened toward year-end, while volumes remained positive but slowed in Q4. The…

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FMCG Barometer Executive Summary Q3 2025

FMCG Barometer Executive Summary Q3 2025

The FMCG market in 2025 continues to show resilience, with value growth sustained across regions and the Americas remaining ahead overall. Global volumes…

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Methodology

Explanation of Terms & Methodology

Markets Chart

Markets Chart

Markets Chart

Markets Chart

Definitions

FMCG value change is the sum of value sales for all categories compared with YA.
To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume).
To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA.
The difference between the FMCG Price Paid Change and Inflation (food inflation for all European countries, total inflation for Russia) are then a result of up-trading (buying higher priced products) or down-trading (buying lower priced products).

Note that the changes are multiplicative and don't add back exactly.
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is based on households' plans for major purchases and their economic situation, both currently and their expectations for the immediate future.
Opinions compared to a “normal” state are collected and the difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions.

How to read this chart

Sales value went up 6.3% driven by changes in category price paid, 6.7% whilst volume was down 0.4%.

We assume that Food inflation is a good proxy for actual price increases in FMCG.

The increase in prices paid 6.7% is less than inflation 12%. This means that buyers choice has moved towards lower priced products by -4.7%.

Methodology Chart

The measure tree

The ‘measure tree’ shows how value sales are a function of volume sales and price paid.
Volume sales are dependent on three variables - the number of buyers, how often they buy and how much they buy on each occasion.
For each category, we calculate the contribution made to volume changes by changes in the three other variables.
Summing these category-specific contributions for all categories, we arrive at the ‘average category’ view (hence penetration can decrease as we are not looking at total FMCG, but at the average of all categories in the panel).

Measure Tree